Who's next? Cuba needs a president

Experts say Castro's brother is the likely choice, but some Cuban-Americans hope for change

By: Chris Hokanson

Posted: 2/20/08

With Monday's announcement that Fidel Castro is ending his 49-year rule as Cuba's president, speculation has arisen about who will succeed him and what is in store for America's island neighbor.

Castro, who seized power in Cuba in 1959, announced his retirement in the state-run newspaper, Granma. Castro's Cuba has been under a strict ban on trade and travel by the United States since the revolution, but many are wondering if that's likely to end if democratic fundamentals begin to take hold.

"I'm not really surprised about this," said Claudia Avellaneda, a lecturer in political science at Texas A&M who specializes in Latin American politics. "He's been thinking about retiring for a long time, and his brother [Raul Castro] has basically been in power for the last 19 months or so. Everything has been in place to get him used to the position and the process of the government."

But that doesn't mean Raul Castro is a shoe-in for the presidency.

"There is a lot of controversy about [the next president]," Avellaneda said. "In a recent government communication, Raul said something like, 'We need to focus on finishing our duty,' which many people think means he is willing to provide an opportunity for younger generations to govern."

Cuban Vice President Carlos Lage and Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque have been mentioned as candidates for the presidency because they are significantly younger than the 76-year-old Raul. The Cuban Council of State is set to meet Sunday to select the nation's next president.

Though Castro's move from the presidency isn't surprising, the fact that he's been in poor health in recent months made people assume the transition of presidents would come after his death, not his retirement, said Diego Von Vacano, an assistant professor of political science and an expert in Latin American political theory and the democratization of Latin American countries.

"Cuban-Americans in Miami are slowly realizing that their dream of a massive uprising in Cuba upon the decline, resignation or death of Fidel Castro was just that, a dream," Von Vacano said. "Younger generations of Cuban-Americans seek dialogue over intervention in Cuba, so there will be a slow move towards moderate discussion and interaction, away from hardline demands for removing the Communist leadership."

Castro and his socialist-communist government constantly clashed with the United States, leading to a failed invasion of the Bay of Pigs, the Cuban Missile Crisis and a trade embargo still in effect. If Americans and Cubans hope for a better relationship, some experts think a Democratic president in 2009 might start the nation on that path.

"U.S.-Cuba relations have been pretty much the same for 50 years - adamant resistance from the Cubans, and an unflinching embargo from the U.S.," Von Vacano said.

"The transition to Raul Castro will lead to more open, mixed-economy policies, which affects mainly European investments. This won't change U.S. policy, unless a Democrat wins the elections in November. He said this is likely, so a possible U.S. overture might occur if Obama is elected, less likely if Clinton is. The bans are in place owing to U.S. policies, and they will remain in place if McCain wins."

Most experts said Raul Castro is the most likely choice for the Cuban presidency, and though his charisma and leadership style are similar to his brother's, his economic policies might relax.

"Raul will definitely assume power unless something drastic happens, which I do not expect," said Par Rosson, a professor of agricultural economics and director of the Center for North American Studies. "His mode [of government] will be more market-oriented and a softer form of socialism - similar, many think, to China's economic system, but possibly with better treatment of dissent."

Though many Americans and Cuban-Americans had been hoping for a quick turnaround after Castro's removal from office, the move toward democracy could take a while.

"I don't expect any major policy changes in Cuba," Rosson said. "This is part of the transition that will be evolutionary, not revolutionary."