Decision day

Hour by hour: polls close, results reported

By: Liz Sidoti

Posted: 11/4/08

WASHINGTON - Election watchers won't have to wait for polls to close in the West to know how things are going. The first clues will come early, when voting ends in Georgia, Indiana and Virginia.

If Democrat Barack Obama wins any of the three, he could be on his way to a big victory, maybe even a landslide. If Republican John McCain sweeps them, he could be headed for a comeback. And if any of these three are too close to call quickly, that could indicate a long night ahead - and, perhaps, a squeaker of a result.

President Bush comfortably won the trio four years ago. But Obama has used his financial muscle and his draw as the youthful first black Democratic nominee to put them, and other historically reliable Republican states, into play.

Thus, the Democrat has several routes he can take to reach the 270 Electoral College votes needed for victory. McCain's strategy has no room for error; he must win nearly all the states that went to Bush in 2004, and possibly even one or two that voted for Democrat John Kerry that year.

Here's a timetable for armchair election watchers.

6 p.m.: The last polls close in Georgia, Indiana and Virginia, new battlegrounds this year offering a combined 39 votes, as well as in Kentucky and South Carolina, GOP country and 16 votes McCain should easily win, and Vermont, three, a sure thing for Obama.

6:30 p.m.: Ohio and North Carolina, both are critical for McCain.

7 p.m.: Final voting ends in 15 states and Washington, D.C.

For Obama, the biggest prizes among them are Florida and its 27 votes and 11-vote Missouri, a bellwether for decades. Both went for Bush, and while Obama can afford to lose both, McCain can't.

Should the Republican stumble in those states or others, he hopes to make up any deficit in Pennsylvania, which offers 21 votes and hasn't voted for a Republican since 1988. A loss here could be the death knell for McCain's chances; it's the only Kerry-won state where he and the Republican National Committee are fiercely competing.

8:30 p.m.: Arkansas should be called for McCain shortly after its polls close. It has six votes.

9 p.m.: Another big wave of states closing. The ones to watch are hotly contested Bush states Colorado and New Mexico, where Obama hopes Democratic-leaning Hispanics will lift him to victory. McCain could withstand losing the 14 votes these two offer - as long as he wins just about everywhere else he's competing.

The Republican can essentially guarantee victories worth 52 votes in Kansas, Louisiana, Texas and Wyoming, while Obama is virtually certain to collect 72 votes from Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Rhode Island and Wisconsin.

10 p.m.: Voting ends in GOP-held, Iowa, Montana and Nevada, a combined 15 votes. Losing these would be a setback for McCain, while winning them would be a boon for Obama. Utah's five votes are a certainty for McCain.

11 p.m.: Four states - mega-prize California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington - are expected to quickly give Obama a combined 77 votes, while Idaho is expected to award its four votes to McCain.

1 a.m.: Capping off the night is Alaska, where GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin is governor. The Republican ticket is a shoo-in for those three votes.

And then it's over. Or not.